Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
