Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
